CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-06-08T02:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-06-08T02:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39316/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2, and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. The source is likely related to a large dimming region centered near N10E40 which begins to appear around 2025-06-08T01:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery. Possible arrival signature starting around 2025-06-12T19:30Z: a likely signature of a flux rope, characterized by the lowering of ion density and temperature, and by the smooth velocity decrease, as well as by smooth rotation of magnetic field components. It is following the coronal hole high speed stream which started around 2025-06-11T11:25Z
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-12T19:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-06-12T00:01Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-06-08T15:30Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 361
Longitude (deg): 015E
Latitude (deg): 29N
Half-angular width (deg): 34

Notes: Clear dimming and filament-channel like signature on e.g. AIA211. Probable filament eruption or upper corona-borne feature. Modelled as two lobes, an inner slower core and an outer, misaligned and further westward shock-like portion that is travelling marginally faster. This solution pertains to the outer, although it is difficult to unpick MOSWOC Enlil at present due to the high number of CMEs modelled. E/N coordinates no not closely match observed site of eruption, and it has been inferred that the release was not radial as the imagery for the fit is good (C2,3 and COR2). W edge faint in Lasco.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence after Jay Merrell

Lead Time: 91.10 hour(s)
Difference: 19.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-06-09T00:24Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy